Hamlin cruises to MIS victory

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/18/2007 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denny Hamlin pulled away from the field after the last round of pit stops and never looked back to capture Saturday afternoon's Carfax 250 Busch Series race at the Michigan International Speedway. The No.20 Joe Gibbs Racing Chevrolet driver crossed the finish line 6.998 seconds ahead of Matt Kenseth.

The victory was Hamlin's second of the season and fourth of his Busch career.

After winning his first Busch pole since 2004, Greg Biffle led the field to the green flag for 125 laps of high-speed racing.

The No.16 Roush Fenway Racing Ford driver was unsuccessful in holding off a charging Brian Vickers, who took the inside lane, on the first lap.

Vickers was still in the first when the initial caution flag of the race came out on lap seven. David Reutimann, who was second in the drivers standings, came down pit road during the caution period to fix a left-front fender problem.

On lap 11 Vickers led Biffle, Hamlin, Kenseth and Kevin Harvick to the restart. Kenseth used a great restart to make his way to the front. On lap 16 Kenseth ducked under Vickers for the lead.

The points leader, Carl Edwards, experienced some trouble when he spun out on lap 24 to bring out the caution flag. Edwards then received a penalty for entering pit road to early, which left him at the back of the field.

Vickers, who retook the top spot just before the caution came out, led the leaders down pit lane for their first pit stops of the afternoon under the caution period. Hamlin won the race off pit road followed by Biffle, Harvick, Kenseth and Vickers.

The race got back underway on lap 28, but four laps later, Tony Stewart brought out the caution flag. Vickers had to stop during the caution because his crew failed to completely fill his fuel tank on his last pit stop.

Kenseth led Hamlin, Biffle, Harvick and Mark Martin to the restart on lap 36. Kenseth held onto the lead, but Hamlin followed close behind.

Kenseth and Hamlin traded the first position back-and-forth a number of times. Kenseth finally won the battle and started to pull away on lap 58. Biffle, Harvick and Paul Menard battled behind these two drivers.

The No.17 Roush Ford driver had almost a one-second margin on Hamlin. That gap was quickly cut into as Kenseth approached lap traffic. And on lap 68 Hamlin took the outside lane to pass Kenseth.

Hamlin was still showing the way as the last round of pit stops approached for the leaders.

The leader came down pit road on lap 77 for his last stop. The rest of the leaders took their last stops during the next few laps. Kenseth had a slow stop which hurt his chance of winning.

When the cycle of green flag stops was complete, Hamlin led Kenseth, Harvick, Biffle and Martin. But the No.20 JGR Chevrolet driver held over a two-second lead as the field spread out.

With 25 laps left the margin for Hamlin was 2.453 seconds. As the lead continued to increase it was obvious it would take a caution flag for someone to have a chance of beating Hamlin.

The remaining laps had very little excitement. There were no more caution flags allowing Hamlin to cross the finish line unchallenged.

Harvick, Jeff Burton and Biffle completed the top-five.

Harvick's third-place finish vaulted him into second place overall, 700 points behind leader Edwards, who finished 28th.

The next race in the series is set for Friday, August 24th at the Bristol Motor Speedway.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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