Reds wrap up set in Milwaukee

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After breaking out of an offensive slump last night, the Cincinnati Reds hope to be swinging hot bats for a second straight day when the National League Central co-leaders conclude a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers this afternoon at Miller Park.

The Reds followed up a shutout loss at Houston on Sunday with a 3-2 setback to the Brewers the following night, but the NL's most productive offense was able to return to its season-long form in Tuesday's second test of this three-game set. Cincinnati racked up 19 hits and knocked out Milwaukee ace Yovani Gallardo in the third inning en route to a 12-4 rout.

Scott Rolen led the Reds' outburst by going 4-for-4 with three RBI. Fellow NL All-Stars Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto also collected four hits each in the win, with Phillips knocking in a pair of runs, while Ramon Hernandez doubled twice and finished with three RBI on the night.

Most of the damage took place against Gallardo (9-5), who was rocked for six runs (five earned) and 10 hits before being removed after just 2 2/3 innings.

"You can never predict what's going to happen in this game," said Rolen. "We swung the bats well and kind of put the pressure on them. It feels good to even up the series and hopefully we can take it [Wednesday]."

With the Brewers trailing big late, manager Ken Macha decided to have position player Joe Inglett pitch the ninth inning, with the utilityman retiring the side in order.

"It's really the first time I've ever used the position player to pitch," Macha said. "It was interesting. He was throwing 51 (mph) and got them out. When you're starter doesn't get three innings in, that's what happens."

The Reds didn't get much out of their starter either, with Edinson Volquez lasting only 3 2/3 frames and allowing four runs on six hits while issuing four walks. Logan Ondrusek (2-0) then took over and delivered 2 1/3 hitless innings to nail down the win.

Gallardo made more of an impact at the plate, belting a two-run homer off Volquez in the second inning. Rickie Weeks added a solo shot and ended 2-for-4 with two runs scored for Milwaukee, which had a season high-tying five-game win streak halted.

Seeking to get the Brewers back on track will be Chris Narveson, a surprise eight-game winner for the team who's done a serviceable job since being placed in the rotation in late April. The journeyman lefty hasn't had a good July, however, as he's allowed 21 runs (20 innings) over 20 1/3 innings and posted a 1-2 record in four starts this month.

Narveson was sharp in his first outing after the All-Star break, holding NL East-leading Atlanta to two runs in six innings to help Milwaukee to a 6-3 win on July 17. He didn't perform as well in last Friday's matchup with Washington, however, as the visiting Nationals reached him for five runs in a six-inning no-decision.

The 28-year-old gave up two home runs in that start and has surrendered 16 in only 98 2/3 innings of work this season. The Reds, by the way, are ranked second in the NL with 119 homers, a number surpassed only by the Brewers, in addition to topping the Senior Circuit with 496 runs scored.

This will be Narveson's first-ever start against Cincinnati, but he's yielded just one run in a combined four innings in two previous encounters with the Reds in relief.

For Cincinnati, hard-luck rookie Travis Wood takes another stab at an elusive initial victory in the majors when he takes on the Brewers for the first time tonight. The young lefty has made five starts since being promoted from the minors on July 1, but has yet to win despite limiting the opposition to two runs or fewer in three of those games.

Wood wasn't particularly good in his most recent assignment, a six-inning no- decision at Houston on Friday in which he was tagged for four runs on nine hits, but pitched extremely well with nothing to show for it in his two prior starts. He took a perfect game into the ninth inning and finished with nine frames of one-hit, shutout ball at Philadelphia on July 10, then followed up by permitting just one run and three hits through six innings of a loss to Colorado on July 18. The Reds did not score at all in either of the two tilts.

Cincinnati moved into a virtual first-place tie with St. Louis, which lost to the New York Mets on Tuesday, in the NL Central standings and will attempt to maintain its recent mastery of Milwaukee. The Reds have taken seven of the past eight meetings between the clubs and swept a two-game series from the Brewers in Cincinnati from May 17-18.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.